On April 28th, nearly 20 million Canadian citizens voted in what many called the most important election of their life. Much was at stake: skyrocketing housing costs, an energy crisis, and an unpopular carbon tax were at the forefront of voters’ minds as they cast their ballots.
Early on, the people’s preferences began to exhibit themselves in candidates’ approval ratings. Mark Carney, an economist who had previously worked as the head of the Bank of Canada, but not as a member of parliament, headed the Liberal party with an approval rating of +10. His major opposition was Pierre Polievre, who had been the Conservative MP of Ottawa’s Carleton for twenty years but gained a rating of 0. The two other candidates – New Democratic party leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet both garnered a rating of -20, signalling the public’s general disinterest in their campaigns.
Uncertainty exhibited itself in the polls, which fluctuated widely up until election day. Polls had been trending towards a complete Conservative majority in January; however, they flipped in March, likely due to Carney’s appointment as Liberal party leader. On election day, Conservative polling spiked back up to 25% against the Liberals’ 75% chance to form a majority government. Reflecting this, the Conservatives won 143 seats, up from 120, while the Liberals won 169 seats – only 3 short of the 172 needed to form a solely Liberal majority, and up 8 seats from 2021’s election. Bloc Quebecois lost 10 seats, going down from 33 to 23. The NDP lost the most, with their previous 24 reduced to only 7, with most of the losses being redistributed to the two main parties. The Green Party won 1 seat.
Major party leaders also lost their seats in the House of Commons. Poilievre, the Conservative candidate for PM, lost his seat in Carleton to his Liberal opponent, while Singh of the NDP also lost his seat in Burnaby-Central, Vancouver, owing to his recent unpopularity.
Due to the lack of a Liberal majority in the Canadian government, the Liberals do not have the majority needed to pass laws or defend against a motion of no confidence. This would mean that in the event that a vote of no confidence is passed, the PM would be forced to resign or to call for a general election. Until they are able to form a government with another party, this remains a real risk for the new government. Their main hope is another alliance with the NDP, given that Singh’s resignation from party leader may open the path to a new leader who could be open to cooperation with the Liberals.
For the time being, Canada will be stuck from passing laws unless the parties cooperate, but after such a polarising election, it is unlikely that this will happen soon.
